Politics is a game. The only trouble is, the people playing it are the only ones who can win; the rest of us are just a bunch of losers. And yet, time and time again, we allow ourselves to buy into the notion that there are politicians out there who can (and will) do something that doesn’t solely benefit their state (and/or their chances at re-election).1
There’s been much ill-considered speculation and outright lies concerning Barack Obama’s spectacular fall from grace. From a lofty (and ridiculously inflated) 70 percent immediately following inauguration, he has crashed to a measly 46 percent approval rating2 in recent months. Most pundits will decry it as indicative of one thing or another — disapproval of health care, disapproval of the Democratic Party, disapproval of Michele Obama’s outfits — but it mostly comes down to the disconnect between expectations and reality. Frank Rich had a piece in the New York Review of Books3 on this very subject recently, and it’s a good framework at which to look at our political system.
The following example hits close to home in several ways, in that I not only live in the district mentioned, but I also wrote a piece about the race. Thus, some of the media criticism is directed inwardly as well, but I did my best to avoid the pitfalls mentioned.
The 6th Legislative District in Washington state is known for being pretty evenly split. In 2006, the state Senate seat flipped parties for the first time in 40 years, and the second Legislative position (the one being discussed) was decided by a grand total of 47 votes in 2008.
When the 2010 primaries rolled around, both candidates from the last go-round — Republican John Ahern, who held the seat for eight years prior to losing it in 2008, and incumbent Democrat John Driscoll — signed up for a repeat performance. But Ahern was challenged on the right side by one Shelly O’Quinn, running for her first political office.
It’s difficult to discern precisely what is the worst-kept secret in politics, as very few secrets are ever kept. One of the most often-discussed but least worried about statistics regards incumbency: Nationally, about 90 percent of elected officials retain their seats every election, with significant drops (such as the Republican takeover of 1994) barely dipping below 80 percent since 1940.
In O’Quinn’s case, as she put it, she essentially squared off against two incumbents — both with name recognition and, one would hope, public knowledge of their stance on the issues.
So how does a political neophyte go about trying to get herself elected? O’Quinn did it the hard way, knocking on more than 16,000 doors (her count), standing on sidewalks, curbs and street corners waving signs, and generally just trying to be visible. Though more moderate than Ahern4, she was younger than both candidates by far — a better demographic fit for a district with a median age of 35.
But baby-shaking and hand-kissing will only get you so far in a modern race. You still need your Facebook, your Friendsters, your MySpace and — regrettably — your mainstream media. Especially in a city like Spokane, whose “Wi-Fi network” has spottier coverage than AT&T, the printed rag remains king. Even if absolutely everyone I’ve spoken with complains about the horrendous decline a certain austere daily paper has suffered.
Aside from announcing her candidacy, there were three big stories covered by local news outlets in regards to this race. The first involved a video posted to YouTube on May 4. The video, which appears to have been shot from below the level of a table the videographer sat at (and thus invisible to O’Quinn), shows O’Quinn making a speech at the Friday Morning Republican Breakfast Club, a get-together for like-minded red-heads. It appears to be heavily edited, focusing on two stances: O’Quinn’s position on river set-backs5, and abortion.
Leaving aside the fact that state legislators have almost zero impact on the question of whether abortions can be performed6, the video highlights what, to the extraordinarily conservative mind, can be viewed as an abrogation of doctrine. O’Quinn puts forth the — quite reasonable — idea that perhaps not all cases are black and white. In her example, she postulates that no one outside of her family (namely, her and her husband) should be able to decide her medical options if she were pregnant but the baby posed a serious threat to her health. In her words, “who gets to decide if my other two children have a mother?”
One of the local political agitators blasted the video out to his listserv, attaching to his email a document that included various accusations of personal and professional activities that, again, when viewed through an ultra-conservative lens, might appear somewhat unsavory. (I will not repeat any of the accusations nor provide a link to the original document. I have not verified the information, nor do I find it all germane to the discussion of whether she is qualified to represent the 6th District.) This managed to elevate everything into the “spat” category, with accusations, counter-accusations and generally a whole lot of noise on personal and Spokesman blogs.
The second campaign incident involved the self-same Spokesman campaign blog. The Spokesman came up with the idea to videotape candidates being asked questions in a one-on-one format, interviewer and interviewee. Ahern and Driscoll both agreed. O’Quinn, expressing a — legitimate, under the circumstances — fear of having her answers videotaped and edited, refused.
The League of Women voters scheduled a televised debate for a number of local races, including the 6th District Legislative position. O’Quinn, of course, accepted, because it’s not like she could have lost anything from it. Ahern originally accepted as well, but pulled out when he discovered Driscoll had never agreed to debate. He then proceeded to question whether O’Quinn would have even shown up for the debate, citing her refusal to participate in the video interviews.
The problem is the subsequent Spokesman article, which not only included Ahern’s (asinine) statement, but allowed it to pass unchallenged.
One can argue O’Quinn’s reason for not participating in the interviews was not valid, but consider the circumstances. There was no reason for her not to appear in the videos aside from her fear of having her answers manipulated — something that had already happened once. Name recognition, being placed on an equal footing, both of these were good reasons for her to agree to the interviews. Her refusal makes sense only if we take her reasoning at face value.
So that became the second story of the campaign. The candidates would not participate in a head-to-head debate, because Ahern was afraid O’Quinn wouldn’t show up. That also meant her refusal to participate in the videos became a story as well, because it had to be explained what Ahern was talking about. Additionally, at the top of each video, it mentions that O’Quinn “declined to participate.”
The third event is perhaps the most cynical, though at this point that’s a bit like saying Jimmy Fallon is the least funny comedian on NBC: the degrees of separation are so close as to be almost nonexistent. Apparently, O’Quinn’s campaign manager had been sending out emails that included sentences like the following:
“Recent polling data shows that Shelly O’Quinn is blowing the competition away…”
“Recent polling is also showing that Shelly is beating the competition…”
These sentences are obviously ridiculous, if not out-and-out lies. No one polls in a state representative race; not only is it prohibitively expensive, but it’s completely useless. They’re in it until the primaries, so there’s no reason for a campaign to commission a study to find out how well they’re doing.
If someone merely wanted to bring up the inaccuracy of these statements, I could understand it. Instead, Chuck Skirko Jr., president of the Spokane County Young Republicans, decided the O’Quinn campaign must be conducting secretive polling and not reporting on campaign expenditure reports. So he filed a complaint with the state Public Disclosure Commission.
Again, no one’s questioning that the campaign manager lied. But by filing the complaint, it paints O’Quinn not only as a liar but also unethical. In the Spokesman article, Spokane County Republican Chairwoman Cindy Zapotocky was quoted as saying the party asked for the specific polling data.
“I asked him to show us (the poll), and he didn’t do it,” Zapotocky said.
Why this quote is included in the story is baffling, because at that point it’s already been established no polling exists. It’s not that polling data was withheld, it’s that it existed only in the campaign manager’s imagination.
If you were a voter in the 6th District, these are things you would likely know about the candidates: The incumbent, John Driscoll, is a Democrat; John Ahern, an arch-conservative Republican, held the seat for eight years before losing to Driscoll in 2008; Shelly O’Quinn, a newcomer Republican, has questionable commitment to conservative ideals (from the video), refuses to articulate her views (because of the Spokesman videos), and had a PDC complaint filed against her for campaign finance irregularities.
However:
Driscoll essentially coasted through the primary on the virtue of being a Democrat in a race against two Republicans. I mentioned it in passing in my story, but there’s only so much you can say along the lines of “he’s just playing it safe until he has to wade into the fray.”
Ahern’s campaign mantra focused on three things: “privatize, privatize, privatize.” I couldn’t find anyone to go on the record with exact, but my notebook calculations of the direct impact privatizing the three things (state liquor, state ferries and the Department of Printing) would reduce the total amount of money spent by the state, but the revenues taken in by those industries exceeds expenditures by something in the neighborhood of $300+ million.
Both Ahern and Driscoll said their “experience” was what made them best-suited for the job. Both have owned small businesses, and said the day-to-day operations and knowing how to “create jobs” would serve them well. You’ll forgive my confusion in puzzling out how running a copier-and-printer supply business or a career in “medical service delivery, medical practice management, and physician recruitment” qualifies you to write laws.
But O’Quinn’s not a perfect candidate by any stretch of the imagination. When pressed on specifics for helping heal the state’s gaping budget wound, she deferred, saying decisions could be only be made after proper study. “If we’re looking at reducing health care inefficiencies, we should not have a government-run health care system,” she said. Even though health care reform includes only an expanse in an existing governmental operation (Medicare) that’s almost universally supported. Again, not that she has the power to do anything about it.
These are all things voters in the 6th District should know. Whether they care about them is another point entirely, but these are the leadership abilities and substantive questions upon which we should be basing our decisions for who we’re electing.
Instead, we get the political equivalent of Paris Hilton journalism. Who’s bad-mouthing who, what the candidate said in an insidious “gotcha!” video, and who’s the centerpiece of the manufactured scandal.
Who’s to blame? Everyone. A one-man demolition derby would be pretty boring; everyone needs to get involved in order for a truly calamitous experience. Driscoll, Ahern, O’Quinn herself, the Spokesman, the Inlander, political blogs, everyone. We’ve confused image for substance, as we have in so many other aspects of our lives, but this is an area where it gets dangerous.
More than that, we’ve become so polarized as a populace that it almost wouldn’t matter if voters did have that information at hand. They vote for the letter next to the name in parentheses, rather than the person. Candidates who lose in the primaries routinely endorse the very people they vilified two days prior.
I’m not saying O’Quinn should have advanced past to the general. In fact, her conduct after the primaries suggests that her claims to “integrity” were nothing more than posturing. Despite being disparaged by Ahern’s campaign, despite disagreeing with him on (stated) legislative priorities and any number of issues, she was still willing to sit down with Ahern for lunch, where he will “encourage her to run for another office.”
She claimed that because of her job at Greater Spokane (the chamber of commerce for the region), she was unable to endorse candidates. This highly dubious claim7 aside, why should she? Clint Didier, a Republican/Tea Party candidate for Patty Murray’s Senate seat, withheld his endorsement from Rossi until he changes some of his opinions to those deeply held by Didier. Agree with him or not, at least he had the integrity to stick to his issues.
O’Quinn claims she can’t endorse Ahern. God forbid she go public with the decision not to endorse anyone at all. As with Monopoly (another game involving almost incomprehensible sums of money), it seems the only way to win in politics is not to play at all.
Notes:
- 1. The lone exception I have to this theory personally is the Sen. Al Franken, a Democrat from Minnesota. He’s repeatedly taken up the mantle for Net Neutrality at a time when very few other senators have bothered, and I have yet to see anything indicating a compromise of his strong (as portrayed through his numerous political books) moral compass. I hold out hope this will continue to be the case, but like baseball players and steroids, am always prepared in the back of my mind for disappointment.
- 2. Rasmussen
There’s a good argument to be made such metrics are about as meaningful as the attractiveness of a performer at a strip club: failure to receive a majority of the crowd’s approval doesn’t mean anything, as somebody’s going to be up there doing it.
- 3. Which includes perhaps the strangest picture I’ve ever seen in a nationally syndicated publication. If the piece is ostensibly about Obama, why are the only discernible faces not his? Is it indicative of his primacy in the minds of the voters? His inscrutability? Or is that the only picture that’s been taken of Obama that hasn’t been overused to the point of inducing nausea?
- 4. Ahern referred to O’Quinn as “in-between moderate and liberal,” which is accurate only if your idea of the political center is somewhere to the right of Sen. Joe McCarthy.4.1
- 4.1 I’ve always felt bad for the esteemed Sen. Eugene McCarthy, who I feel must get confused with his altogether more repulsive McCarthian counterpart quite often. Since the end of the election of 2008, I’ve often hoped that Sen. John McCain would have similar homophonic difficulties, but alas I don’t think “McCarthian” is quite the epithet in Arizona as it is in civilized places.
- 5. A “controversy” I could not possibly begin to care about, let alone explain.
- 6. Though I’m aware of the power state legislatures have to curtail abortions and regulate requirements for getting one, the overarching question is ultimately Constitutional and thus in the hands of the Supreme Court.
- 7. There are two possible reasons for this: 1) GSI, as a nonprofit, could get in hot water if it endorses a candidate, or 2)GSI has a policy against its employees privately endorsing candidates. The first is ridiculous, because O’Quinn wouldn’t be endorsing anyone in an official capacity — the IRS said (I asked) that employees can endorse whoever they want in the primary. The second is possible, I guess, if GSI actually cared enough to have thought out a policy that preserves their “nonpartisan” status by pretending their employees have no political opinions of their own at all. This, however, seems unlikely.